Delivering the 2015 Legislative Year speech to an assembly filled to capacity, president Jammeh, on Friday February 27, admitted that 'the capacity of the economy has been stretched and tested to its limit as it grapples with unprecedented domestic macroeconomic challenges including high debt burden and extraneous shocks.'
This admission would have been at least commended had the self-taught economist from Kanilai village not followed it up with a benumbed 'bad news'. He believed that due a 'strong tourist season and growth in agriculture, the economy showed growth in 2014. Unfortunately the positive growth trend declined due to 2013 drought and Ebola outbreak in the West African region that affected the over all crop production'.
Had my findings been right, the Ebola outbreak was initially reported in February 2014 and the severity of the impact on tourist destination countries was not immediate. The contradiction is not just the unmatched timeline of Ebola outbreak, but the inability to attribute Ebola to crop production considering that there was not a single case of Ebola reported in the Gambia to affect farming.
He accomplishingly reported that despite the 'shocks the economy showed resilience and registered a 2% growth.'
To my utter dismay the president credited that to the 'soundness of our macroeconomic policies that we pursue and strict adherence to spending within the budget.' His macroeconomic policies that are almost non-existent should never have yielded any positive growth, so he was satisfied with the 2%.
Now here is when most people would think Jammeh was either hallucinating or in denial, taking Gambians for fools. It's insulting for Yaya to boast of responsible spending when he gives raw cash in bags to individuals, organizations and countries. We saw the wasteful celebrations of the 20th anniversary of the military takeover that costs a whopping D85 million last year, compelling the National Assembly to approve a supplementary budget at the end of the fiscal year in December.
The slump in the country's economic performance was predictable because Gambia featured heavily on the international radar the year prior as dissident activists criss-crossed Europe and the US engaging the Gambia's development partners on the country's deplorable Human Rights records. As if that was not enough, Jammeh went on a daring but unsurprising tangent issuing threats to 'exterminate' Gays and Lesbian like 'mosquitoes' calling them 'vermins'. A responsible government would have calculated the cost of this reckless pronouncement on the country's economic performance. But this was not featured in the president's excuses.
Continuing his fatal uncouth economic stratagem, we saw the unveiling of newly printed bills in an economy grappling with an inflation rate reported at 6.95 percent in December 2014. Promising durability and authenticity, it's said that the new bills 'are a unique symbol of national identity, pride and unity'. Most of us got riled up and distracted by Jammeh's face on the country's currency and missed the goal of this shrewd politician. For someone with limited to no economic inclination, they thought it best to print more money and flood the markets thinking that would tackle the inflation rate. They obstruct the natural market supply and demand because they do not respect the 'invisible hand' that could have self-regulated.
The Gambia leaps towards a possible hyperinflation, uncertainty and confusion, and fall in the savings of those able to put some emergency funds aside.
Yaya 'No Sabi'. With the wealth of experience in seasoned, tested technocrats and civil servants at his disposal, he prefers using an experience he never has, running all government departments and agencies on verbal orders and suiting the economy to the first lady's flashy tastes. From the little time that I'd spent in economic and finance classes, I was able recognize the horrible macroeconomic policies and the Juvenile Fiscal indiscipline that shows total disregard for national priorities.
Yaya should be liberalising the economy, encouraging competition especially in the private sector, ensures an enabling environment for job creation, instead he is adding numbers to the unemployment statistics by banning lotteries and casinos that employ thousands of Gambians in an economy that has the military and security services as the biggest employer.
It's a shame, But what do I know?!
Bright Monday and Peace To The Planet.
Saidykhan.
3/2/2015
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